The emerging conflict in the Middle East has relegated the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war into the shadows. Yet the battles rage on. Although the fog of war can conceal many details, focusing on the role of a single player can often shed new light on the broader tapestry of the conflict. Recently, Belarus has come into focus for its notable role in aiding Russia.
Yet, somewhat surprisingly, Sergei Aleinik, the Foreign Minister of Belarus, claimed that he could not envision a situation in which his country would formally enter the war on Russia’s side. His statement is dubious in light of recent events. For example, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Lukashenko allowed Russian military forces to station themselves in Belarus. Not only has this strategic decision offered Russia a significant advantage, enabling them to launch attacks from various directions, but it also demonstrates Lukashenko’s aid and support of Putin’s agenda.
Lukashenko frequently takes public positions that advance Putin’s goals. In October of 2023, Lukashenko told BelTA, the state-owned Belarussian news agency, that Ukraine needs to come to terms with Russia’s territorial gains: “There are enough problems on both sides and in general the situation is now seriously stalemate: no one can do anything and substantively strengthen or advance their position.”
Over the summer, Russia declared its plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, a development that not only further threatens the security of Ukraine, but also poses a significant threat to neighboring NATO countries–raising the stakes for all parties.
The alliance between Belarus and Russia has long been recognized, yet the complexities of their relationship are frequently glossed over. Lukashenko is often portrayed as merely Putin’s puppet, but he too reaps great advantages. With Belarus serving as a vital military ally to Russia, a certain level of dependency has developed on Moscow’s part. This dependency, in turn, enables Lukashenko to gain considerable influence over Russian affairs. Over the past year, Belarus has benefited from extensive Russian economic support, primarily through financial aid in the form of loans, facilitated access to Russian ports, and discounted gas prices. Last September, Lukashenko boosted his international profile when he was invited by Putin to a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
That being said, Lukashenko’s objectives often differ from Putin’s. He is likely to favor a prolonged conflict, however inconvenient it may be to Russia’s military goals, as this scenario preserves his influence and delivers the most benefit for Belarus. Russian and Belarusian interests, though aligned against the West, do not entirely align with each other. As we seek new information in this continuing war, Belarus bears watching.
