In 1953, the first democratically elected head of a Middle Eastern government, the Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, was overthrown in a coup d’état orchestrated by the CIA. After being placed back on his throne, Mohammad Reza Shah, the Pahlavi monarch, ruled as a brutal dictator under the thumb of the American and British governments. When the Iranian revolution of 1979 resulted in the abdication of the Shah, Mohammad Reza Shah’s brutal dictatorship was replaced with theocratic rule that has had a stranglehold on the Iranian people for the last few decades. The mistrust of Western governments remains amongst the Iranian people, despite the brutality they have endured under their religious leaders. To date, there have been several uprisings in Iran of the people against their government. Some of the major protests have included the Tehran University “Student Uprising” in 1999, the 2009 “Green Movement”, the 2017-18 protests related to economic hardships from outside sanctions, the November 2019 “Fuel Price Protests” and most recently the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests since 2022 after the killing of Mahsa Amini by the morality police. Each protest has been met with brutal crackdowns, with thousands arrested, jailed and executed by the Iranian government. Although some of the protests gained some traction, none were remotely successful in toppling the oppressive regime that exists in Iran.
After much posturing by the Iranian regime regarding enrichment of uranium for “peaceful” purposes, Israel and the US called the bluff of Iran and carried out a surgical decapitation of the Iranian military and scientific leadership, in addition to the decisive Israeli bombing of Tehran and American air strikes, which destroyed three main uranium enrichment sites of Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan. The country and its government were not only taken by surprise, but their performative missile attack afterwards revealed their military weakness that had been previously masquerading as more powerful to the world. Since that time, there has been significant fallout amongst the different ranks that rule the country. While Israel encourages the Iranian people to rise up against their government, there is little actual support from any country for the citizens of Iran. Regardless of that lack of support, the question remains: what will become of the Iranian regime?
After 12 days of war, the Israeli and Iranian governments agreed to a ceasefire, brokered by the US. In the last year, Iran’s proxies have been severely weakened, which have included Hezbollah and the Houthis. The overall strategic military efforts of the Iranian government were finally thwarted in the strikes that started the 12-day war. Weakened and embarrassed in the eyes of the world, Iran is in a very precarious geopolitical position. According to Suzanne Maloney of Foreign Affairs, “Ultimately, by resorting to military force, Israel and the United States may have accelerated the very outcome they sought to forestall: an even more repressive and adversarial Islamic theocracy with a bomb in the basement and a score to settle in its backyard.”
While some Israelis and Americans call for an opportunity for regime change in Iran, the harsh reality of the incredible power of the oppressive regime has been on full display since the ceasefire. The Iranian regime, fully aware of the possible instability caused by the recent attacks, has turned up its propaganda machine to curry favor with its citizens. As for the dissenting voices, the government has turned to its tried and true playbook of cracking down on anyone who would speak against the government. Dissidents have been rounded up, jailed, and at times executed as enemies of the state. Israeli collaborators are being accused and brought to “justice” by the hard-line judiciary. There have been accusations by Iranian media that the Israeli government had carried out its attacks to encourage regime change and control the people of Iran. The Israeli strategy of promoting regime change has backfired in the form of the current ruling class trying to rally its citizens around their country’s leaders, effectively ignoring the brutal treatment of their populace over the last few decades. Even the bombing of the notorious Evin prison, which houses dissidents, backfired. Even some Israel-sympathetic Iranians described the bombing as a war crime, as Iranian revolutionary prisoners were killed in the bombing. According to Maloney of Foreign Affairs, “It [Evin prison bombing] sparked popular outrage, including from prominent opposition figures”.
There have been many theories as to what regime change may look like in Iran during the current ceasefire. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the military arm of the current regime, has been in lockstep with the clerical rulers. During the war, they were given temporary increased power in order to handle the attacks. Since the ceasefire, the mullahs have again regained that control. Although possible, it is unlikely that the IRGC will take over as the ruling regime, as they have worked closely for decades with the mullahs. Another unlikely regime change would involve Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last Shah before the revolution of 1979; he has billed himself as the rightful heir to that monarchy. This type of regime change would only occur if there were a total governmental collapse, which would be highly unlikely. That has not stopped Pahlavi from taking to the airwaves and spreading his observations of what is going on in Iran, going so far as saying, “We see a leader who is hiding in a bunker like a rat whilst many high elements are taking flight from Iran. I have stepped in to lead this campaign at the behest of my compatriots. I have a plan for Iran’s future and recovery.” According to reporting from Patrick Wintour from the Economist, “Rumours have spread of an emergency government, with talk that two of Iran’s most sophisticated leaders, former president Hassan Rouhani and former foreign minister Javad Zarif could form a tandem – possibly alongside the former speaker of the parliament Ali Larijani.” Although these possibilities have been floated by many news outlets, the most likely future of the regime in Iran lies in a passing of the torch in the current ruling party, the mullahs.
Since the war, Ayatollah Ali Khamamei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has stayed out of the spotlight. He has made some speeches in secure locations, but remains politically weakened by the attacks. The 86-year-old Khameini and his regime might use this opportunity to pass the baton to the next Supreme Leader of Iran. Yet, there is no clear successor to Khameinei — and many leading mullahs are similarly aged. A change of face may help mitigate the political impact of the attacks in the eyes of Iranian citizens. The smooth change of power would ensure the maintenance of the clerical ruling class and the brutal military that does their bidding. The immediate suppression of dissenting voices since the ceasefire was announced seems to reflect the likelihood that the mullahs will successfully protect their rule over the Iranian people, a probability made more plausible by the military might the IRGC possesses. The lack of radical regime change will ironically stabilize geopolitics in the region; however, the people of Iran will suffer the most from the survival of its brutal regime.
