Since the 1940s, there has been an ongoing dispute between Taiwan and China over Taiwan’s sovereignty. Recently, the tension between these two regions has intensified, grabbing the attention of many western nations, including the United States.
Taiwan was originally part of China, but as a result of Japan winning the First Sino-Japanese War, China was forced to cede Taiwan to Japan. Taiwan later became a part of China again after China’s victory in World War Two. Civil war then broke out in China in the late 1940s. At the end of the war, the Kuomintang Party was defeated, so they fled to Taiwan in 1949 and established an independent government on the island.
Currently, there is not a common understanding of what Taiwan is. On one hand, China classifies Taiwan as a breakaway province which it has sworn to gain control of again, by force if necessary. Contrastingly, Taiwan’s leaders recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state; Taiwan has its own constitution, active troops, and democratically-elected leaders. Essentially, Taiwan has all of the factors of an independent nation but its legal status is still unclear. Many Taiwanese people disagree with the Chinese government and believe that Taiwan will always be an independent country, whether or not independence is ever officially declared.
Two of the main political parties in Taiwan are the Kuomintang Party and the Democratic Progressive Party. The Kuomintang favors the eventual reunification of Taiwan and China while the Democratic Progressive Party leans towards the eventual official independence of Taiwan from China. Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-wen, is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party. Taiwan is now closer than it has ever been to declaring independence because of the Democratic Progressive control of the government.
Taiwan is a democracy, and the U.S. has a history of defending democracies against communist nations such as China. Therefore, any Chinese attack on Taiwan would gravely concern the U.S population. Moreover, the U.S. Admiral John Aquilino, head of the Pentagon’s Indo-Pacific command, said that the possibility of China invading Taiwan “is much closer to us than most think.”
The U.S. has had a consistent pledge to Taiwan stating that they will supply them with defensive weapons in the case of a Chinese attack. In early 2020, the U.S. began to openly engage with Taiwan because the Chinese government started to employ low-level gray-zone warfare in an effort to exhaust Taiwan’s military. In further response to this, the U.S. intensified its support of Taiwan by reassuring Taipei (the capital of Taiwan) that the U.S. would continue to be their ally. Additionally, Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo removed all diplomatic contact restrictions between the U.S.’s and Taiwan’s officials. Then, in September 2020, the White House sent the highest-level state department official in decades to Taiwan. After this controversial visit, China warned the U.S. “not to send any wrong signals to ‘Taiwan independence’ elements to avoid severe damage to China-U.S. relations.” Despite this request, this year, President Joe Biden has said that the U.S.’s “commitment to Taiwan is rock solid.” The Biden Administration has encouraged working ties with Taiwanese officials and even invited the Taiwanese envoy to President Biden’s inauguration.
Now, the tension between Taiwan and China is at its highest point in years. Since the beginning of October 2021, China has sent around 150 warplanes–including jet bombers and fighters–into Taiwan’s air defense zone as a method of intimidating the Taiwanese government. The Chinese army also mounted large amphibious landing drills on the mainland section of the Taiwan Straits. This show of force from China is new and more extreme than ever before, which has alarmed the U.S. Despite the fact that China said that the planes’ purpose was to discourage Taipei from pursuing legal independence, many believe that China is actually preparing for a formal attack on Taiwan because of their vague reasoning for the warplanes. To prepare for the possibility of an attack, a small number of U.S. Marines were deployed to Taiwan to train the Taiwanese forces earlier this month.
In more recent days, attempts have been made by Beijing and Washington to stabilize their relationship. Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi met and made significant progress during their conversation: there are now plans for a Biden-Xi virtual summit before the end of 2021. Biden also spoke on the phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Biden said: “I’ve spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree … we’ll abide by the Taiwan agreement. We made it clear that I don’t think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement.” After Biden said this, the Biden administration told the Taiwan Foreign Ministry that the American commitment to Taiwan remains as solid as before, while the Xi administration still warns the U.S. against playing the “Taiwan card.”
Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng warned that China may be able to launch a full-scale attack on Taiwan by 2025, meaning that their is a large risk that the U.S. will be dragged into a military conflict with China in the coming years. However, some are skeptical of China’s willingness to invade Taiwan because this invasion would have detrimental effects on China’s economy and international reputation. Now, it appears that Beijing and Taipei have both decided to dial back the tension for a while, as they celebrated a shared anniversary in mid-October. China continues to advocate for the “peaceful reunification” of Taiwan and China but also notes that they are willing to use military force. Xi believes that “peaceful means best serves the interests of the Chinese nation as a whole, including compatriots in Taiwan.” Ultimately, the future of U.S.-China relations will determine Taiwan’s fate.
