As we in the United States approach our November 2024 election, many around the country and the world are left wondering what will happen to Ukraine and our other allies if former President Trump returns to office. This is because he is at the forefront of a segment of Republican politicians in contemporary American politics that are becoming increasingly hostile to any American involvement in global affairs. Under the guise of an “America first” agenda, these political leaders insist that any time or money spent on the defense or support of our allies is wasted. Instead, they subscribe to the surface-level worldview that the only way to benefit the national security of the United States is to close off our external connections and look entirely inwards.
Particularly vulnerable to a potential isolationist American foreign policy is the existence of a free and democratic Ukrainian nation-state. So far, since being invaded by Russia in February 2022, Ukraine has received around $75 billion worth of aid from the United States for various purposes. While having also received large amounts of aid from countries like the United Kingdom and Germany and from the EU, Ukraine needs American help. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy continued to reiterate in late March that Ukraine would lose the war without the support of the United States. As of now, the American people and government stand, for the most part, with Ukraine. However, a Trump presidency could turn all of that onto its head, given both the special veto powers of the presidency and the complete power Trump holds over the Republican party. Trump does not seem particularly passionate about the idea of continuing the string of American support for Ukraine in its defense of its homeland. In fact, he seems quite ready to give up on the struggle for Ukrainian national sovereignty altogether.
While the messages coming from Trump and his campaign haven’t been entirely clear, it is likely that overall his return to office would be unfortunate for Ukraine. After meeting with Trump in early March, Viktor Orban, the semi-autocratic prime minister of Hungary and Putin’s lone friend in the EU, said that Trump, “will not give a penny into the Ukraine-Russia war and therefore the war will end.” This particular piece of information has yet to be confirmed or denied by the Trump campaign, but if true, would be a strange position for a leader supposedly acting in the best interest of the United States. Orban’s description clearly indicates that Trump is aware that a discontinuance of American support would likely force Ukraine to eventually surrender to the Russian onslaught and agree to whatever terms the victorious invading side desires.
Ukraine is not the only region at risk from a potential loss of American support. NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), a mutual defense alliance made up of 30 European countries in addition to the United States and Canada, may reach a tipping point under a second Trump term. In its more than 70 years history of trans-Atlantic cooperation, the alliance may face its biggest internal threat yet. Throughout his presidency, Trump complained time and time again about NATO countries not paying their fair share of dues to the alliance. While many of the European members (20 of the 32 total members), especially those further away from Russia, do indeed not spend the 2% of GDP on their own defense, a condition required for NATO (which, to be fair, they should be spending), the continuity of the alliance, which has been responsible for the defense of free Europe for more than 70 years, is infinitely more important than trivial issues like who is spending what. Trump, on the other hand, seems to care entirely about whether or not countries are contributing exactly their fair share. In fact, his concern for some European allies only comes down to whether or not they are contributing to NATO, appearing to be apathetic to whether these nations remain under democratic hands. He even went a step further in early February when he said that he would encourage groups like Russia, “to do whatever the hell they want” to European countries not following the required terms of NATO. Not only does this imply that in the case of a Russian invasion of NATO territory, Trump would abstain from defending our allies, something we are obliged to do under NATO Article 5, but it also shows that his first priority is not the defense of our friends but rather hyper fixating on minor details at best and wishing for the success of our enemies at worst. If we assume the less pessimistic of the two and assert that Trump may just be naïve, what he fails to understand is that the cost of our allies not contributing the full 2% of their GDP to defense is nothing in the face of the threat of losing some of our most important historical, economic, military, and cultural partners.
Important to note, however, is Trump’s recent assurance that the United States would not leave the alliance as long as our European partners “play fair.” While this is a low bar, since an American departure from NATO could lead to horrific consequences for much of Europe, it does mean that a Trump presidency will not necessarily doom the future of our democratic allies across the Atlantic.
All of Trump’s rhetoric is shocking to many. The increasingly popular idea of isolationism is unprecedented in American politics, especially within the context of the modern Republican party. In fact, isolationism has not been this popular since the days before World War II, when it was almost entirely put to rest by an attack on American soil that brought the United States into the largest war in world history. Since that point, a vast majority of both Republicans and Democrats have agreed that the United States ought to play an active role in global affairs. Moreover, Trump and his allies’ anti-NATO and soft-on-Russia rhetoric is particularly surprising when compared to his Republican predecessors of Reagan, Bush Sr., and Bush Jr., some of the more hawkish figures in recent American history. However, Trump’s position is not in spite of his party’s former position, but largely because of it. The recent wars fought in Iraq and Afghanistan became quite unpopular, and that presented an opportunity for Trump to capitalize on an America that had gone too far in the interventionist direction. His unprecedented hardline political movement has reinvented American politics altogether, potentially bringing about a new age in which the United States ceases to participate in international affairs. Such a future would not bode well for the world.
Whatever actually does end up happening, the rhetoric of Trump and some of his more radical isolationist allies is damaging as is. It sends the message that under Trump, the United States is not a reliable ally or partner, not just for our European allies, but for all of our allies. Being seen this way greatly harms the United States. It destroys the relationships we have forged over many years and opens our potentially former allies to rely upon and align themselves with other strong countries instead. Thus it weakens the power of the United States abroad and in the long term could open the gate for the Russia-China-Iran alliance to exert increasing amounts of influence in the world, destroying democracy and human rights in their wake.
