In order to find out more about this crisis, we turned to Ilya Ponomarev, a seasoned Russian politician. Ponomarev was a member of the State Duma in Russia and is currently a technology entrepreneur. He was born in Moscow on August 6, 1975, and is known for being the only member of the State Duma to vote against Russia’s annexation of Crimea during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. After working with the largest Russian oil and gas cooperation, Ponomarev was elected to the State Duma in December of 2007 representing Novosibirsk. He introduced and secured passage of legalization of limited liability partnerships in Russia, the New Businesses Act, and initiated tax breaks for technology companies. Because of his controversial vote and dangerous ramifications to his well-being, he moved to Kyiv, Ukraine in 2016.
In recent days, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has escalated from regional tension to an international crisis. The sword of Damocles is once again hovering. There is talk of war. To really understand the reasons for this geopolitical conflict one must go back in history and look at the underlying territorial issues of the past 100 years. Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine were traditionally Russian. The Russian Empire fought hard over Crimea with the Ottomans on many occasions during the 19th century, finally establishing full control over this strategic region. Later, at the onset of the Cold War and the establishment of NATO, the East and West had drawn regions of interest between Russia and the West where Eastern Bloc countries had essentially created a large buffer zone between the two sides. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, which was quickly followed by the collapse of other Eastern Bloc countries, this buffer zone quickly disintegrated. The problem for Russia has since been exacerbated when some of the former Eastern Bloc countries entered EU and NATO, which was perceived as a monumental security risk to Russia. Ukraine became the last frontier that separates Russia and the West but with Ukraine’s continuous leaning toward the West and potential entry into NATO, Russia is now more determined than ever to keep influence over Ukraine. Russian troops have amassed along the borders and are conducting military exercises. NATO nations are protesting. The Biden government is threatening sanctions. American and Russian diplomats have gone into round-the-clock discussions to ease tensions. There are fears of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine after no progress was made during talks in Europe circulating to prevent Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine and persuade Moscow to de-escalate. In Washington Posts’ recent article by, Robyn Dixon, she writes, “Russian official said the security talks this past week [have] failed.” A top official called the discussions a “dead end” situation saying it was practically pointless to continue after the United States and NATO ruled out Russia’s key demands: that Ukraine, Georgia, and other nations be blocked from joining NATO. Russia’s warnings are becoming increasingly serious as they are ready to use military force to protect its security interests, includings their demand that “Ukraine never, never, ever, becomes a member of NATO,” Dixon quotes Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. There were releases of sweeping demands that were false alarms which raised the theory that Russia might be setting up the talks to fail to build a pretext for military actions. U.S. officials say Russia has a history of creating false-flag operations as a disguise of invasion, an example being the annexation of Crimea. Russia invaded Crimea before backing separatists in eastern Ukraine. A major Russian attack on Ukraine would ultimately challenge the commitment to the international order that established European peace since the Helsinki Final Act in 1975, the treaty that affirmed that states were equal and should not use force or threats. Dixon writes, “A sharp rise in tensions would increase the risk of misunderstanding spiraling into catastrophic military conflict.”
Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe, resting on top of The Black Sea and existing on that uneasy border between “The West” and “The East.” Excluding Russia, Ukraine is the largest country in Europe and consists of several ethnicities including Ukrainians, Russians, Belarusians, Moldovans, Crimean Tatars, Bulgarians, Hungarians, Romanians, Poles, and Jews. The Kievan Rus, was the original heart of Russia, before the power shift to Moscow in the late Middle Ages. Ukrainians practice various religions, but the majority of the people adhere to Eastern Orthodox Christianity. Ukraine is very well known for its ongoing conflicts with Russia ever since Ukraine left the old Soviet Union when Communism collapsed in 1991. The Russian language is still widely spoken in Ukraine especially in the eastern and southern parts of the country. The country’s population, as of 2021, is 41.3 million people, including its largest city and capital, Kyiv.
The country’s strategic geographical location as buffer and conduit between Russia and Europe along with its rich natural resources has been the main contributor to some of Ukraine’s major geopolitical conflicts. Nations Online states that after Ukraine gained independence in 1991, “true freedom remains difficult to grasp as many of the former Soviet elites remain deeply rooted and block efforts at economic reform, privatization, and civil rights.”
Ukraine has undergone much economic, social, and political turmoil prior to the pandemic in keeping their independence and not conforming to Russia’s demands to slowly regain control over Ukraine once again.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, born in the final decade of Russian rule and Cold War is a Ukrainian politician who is the 6th and president of Ukraine since May 20, 2019. He is the first Jewish President of Ukraine. Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman is also Jewish. Jews have long been residents of Ukraine and have long been persecuted in Ukraine. The writer Isaac Babel captured their precarious existence in his collection “Odessa Tales,” written at the beginning of the 20th century.
Zelensky won the election with 73.2% of the vote in the second round, defeating the other finalist, Poroshenko. While being president, his achievements include disbanding the parliament and winning a legislative election landslide, managing the pandemic and economic recession, as well as, combating rampant corruption in the country. His achievements helped sustain Ukraine through several crises but the current turmoil is the toughest situation Zelensky will face as a president.
Prior to the pandemic, Ponomarev says, the 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea by Russia was the most existential event in its history since independence.
Crimea was the scene of the “Crimean War” where Florence Nightingale helped to invent modern medical and nursing procedures in a war that pitted Great Britain, France, and The Ottoman Empire against the imperial Russia of Nicholas I. When it’s not convulsed in warfare, Crimea is a divine seaside property on the Black Sea.
The area is a natural treasure, one of the most popular tourist and vacation destinations in the area with a warm climate and scenic nature. It controls significant sections of the Black Sea and contains natural resources such as natural gas deposits.
After the downfall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became a separate nation. A treaty with Ukraine was established in 1997 which allowed Russia to keep its Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol, under this agreement and would extend all the way until 2042. However, in 2014, Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine which violated the border integrity policy made between Ukraine and the Soviet Republic. This prompted a war that resulted in significant loss of life and destroyed large parts of the country’s infrastructure.
Ukraine had relied on Russia for natural gas and due to the rising energy prices for local citizens and businesses, there was a significant impact to the quality of life and infrastructure. The Ukrainian economy was integrated with the Russian economy, half of the Ukrainian foreign trades were linked to Russia’s imports and exports. Agricultural products were being imported from Russia, as well as, natural gas, metals, coal, electricity, oil and oil products, and uranium for power generation in Ukraine.
The “separatist movement” led by Vladimir Putin resulted in the loss of economic ties between the two countries, and the economy went into a “tailspin” as Ponomarev describes it, especially between 2014-2015.
According to Ponomarev, Putin is reluctant to negotiate with Ukraine because in his mind the annexation was not a major conflict reflecting the major hypocrisy of his thinking. There were treaties and negotiations made setting a framework of how the conflict was to be settled but they were lousy and both countries assumed different things causing no one to actually follow them. Ponomarev mentions that “at the end of the day, Putin could easily stop this war and that would be more profitable to him but he thinks fighting is more productive.”
Ukrainians are very proud of their history and heritage and are well-known for openly expressing their opinions and demonstrating in the streets to voice their political views. The last massive outburst in the streets was during the revolution of 2014.
As Ponoramev describes it, “It is a normal thing in Kyiv to protest.” They protested against high taxes, expressed their views towards Zelensky, and expressed their displeasure toward ongoing bloody conflicts with Russia. There was a period of continuous demonstrations and national uprising that lasted for almost four months, with tens of thousands of protesters attempting to overthrow the government under Vicktor Yanukovych. The protests were directed squarely at the government and people rallied for those in power to improve quality of life, fight corruption and conduct socio-economic reforms but while the government was engaged and sensitive to public demands there was very little in terms of the actual outcome.
The act of Russian retaliation because the president of Ukraine was overthrown during the revolution in 2014, was known to have been tied directly to Putin and the pro-Russian president himself, Vicktor Yanukovych. Putin supported him when coming to power but when he was ousted it damaged Putin’s reputation and made him look weak. The Russian president had to come with a power move to boost popularity and shift the narrative away from the perceived – his plan of retribution was to invade Ukraine.
The wider Russo-Ukrainian conflict started escalating after the “Revolution of Dignity” in Ukraine, and continuous tensions at the beginning of 2014 led Russia to ultimately annex the Crimean Peninsula in February/March of 2014.
During a meeting with security service chiefs that discussed freeing the overthrown president, Yanukovych, Putin decided that “we must start working on returning Crimea to Russia.”
On February 23, pro-Russian protests were held in Sevastopol, a Crimean major city and the host of the Russian Naval Fleet. This was followed by Russian masked troops with symbols representing Russia taking over the Supreme Council of Crimea on the 27th of February and direct invasion of towns across all of Crimea which then led to the installation of a pro-Russian politician, Sergey Aksyonov as a governor. Following the aftermath of the annexation, Russia increased its military presence on the Crimean peninsula and threatened to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine tried to resist the new status of Crimea. Putin showed the world, specifically Ukrainians who thought of him as weak, that he is a strong leader and can fight back.
When Russia invaded Crimea, Ukraine didn’t have the necessary strategic resources to respond quickly enough as the country was in disarray after the revolution with the interim government running the nation. There was no one to give orders to the troops when Crimea was under attack so Ukraine could not provide enough resistance against the Russian military forces. This allowed Putin to easily take over that territory without any bloodshed thus contributing to his popularity in Russia.
March 18th marks the sixth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the fight still continues between Russia and Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Crimea was the biggest capture of land in Europe since World War II and has done as much or arguably even more damage to Europe’s post-Cold War security order. A total of 140,000 people left the peninsula in 2014 because of intimidation and oppression. On the other hand, the inflow of Russian people to Crimea is mostly based on military personnel which serves a major purpose of projecting power toward Ukraine and all of Europe.
The Crimean campaign didn’t stop in Crimea but also spurred major conflicts across the rest of the Russia-Ukraine border such as the Donbas region that resulted in 14,000 deaths and still continues to contribute to the tension between the two countries.
Although Ukraine has legally gained independence from the Soviet Union many years ago, can the country truly exist without its massive neighboring heavy influence? Does independence truly exist for Ukraine or is it still connected to Russia to this day and feasibly in the future as well?
