Following the demise of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War, Russia and Ukraine have maintained a complicated and tense relationship. Russia believes that Ukraine should be reunited with the Russian mainland, while Ukraine wants to keep its independence. In 2014, Russian troops invaded a part of Ukraine, called the Crimea, and continue to occupy that land to this day. Fearing Russian expansionism, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries of the West, including the United States and Germany, have warned Russia to stay away from Ukraine, and have threatened military action for Russia’s refusal to obey. Over the last several months, tension has arisen between Russia and Ukraine, and the rest of the world watches, hoping that Russia will not invade. Signs, however, point to the contrary. As of January 28, 2022, Russia had deployed 100,000 troops to the Ukraine-Russian border, and began to conduct military exercises in neighboring Belarus. To foreign policy experts and other observers, this action can only be interpreted as Russian preparation for a massive invasion of Ukraine.
What is at stake for the U.S and Europe? First, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could destabilize important aspects of the global economy. Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of grain and Russian occupation may disrupt the international food supply. In addition, Europe depends on natural gas produced in Russia and exported through Ukraine. A war would cause a significant rise in oil prices worldwide.
Second, a Russian invasion of Ukraine could cause other nations with border disputes to resolve them through military force. For example, after seeing Russia’s successful invasion of Ukraine, China may feel emboldened to invade Taiwan, a small island country that the Chinese current leadership (Chinese Community Party) sees as its own.
Third, this invasion could have a devastating impact on citizens of Ukraine. Anticipating military conflict, prices of basic items have risen, including medical supplies, making it very difficult for people to fulfill their basic needs. Schools in Ukraine have also begun to shut down. Ukrainian citizens fear that a new Russian invasion will have the same effects as the 2014 Russian invasion, which ravaged Ukrainian communities and displaced almost one-and-half million people. There is also concern about Russia’s past with Syria, when in 2015, they launched airstrikes in residential areas, killing 200 civilians.
In light of the serious consequences of a Russian invasion, should the U.S. and other NATO countries risk sending their own troops to keep Russia in check and protect Ukrainian independence? The United States has already sent nearly 10,000 troops to the area, but should they send more, and should they permit the troops to engage militarily? A military conflict involving Russia and the West would mean the death of a large number of soldiers and possibly civilians, and is unlikely to result in Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. Better options for the West include economic sanctions that would cripple the Russian economy and have weakened corrupt Russian oligarchs whose wealth and power have propped up Putin and his aggressive regime. U.S. and European banks should freeze the assets of the Russian government and Russian oligarchs. Law enforcement agencies in the U.S. and Europe should devote more resources to investigating and prosecuting money laundering and other crimes committed by the Russian government and oligarchs. Sanctions, including the refusal to purchase Russian oil, and refusal to sell military and technological items to Russia, should also be considered. Actions to weaken the Russian government and the oligarchs who support it may cause Putin to reconsider his plans to invade Ukraine.
