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A Cold War Turned Hot: An Ever Expanding Front

Model by Ukraine War Map Live. Military map of Ukraine as of day 68 of the invasion. May 2, 2022. 

As Russia ramps up its invasion into Ukraine, more evidence has surfaced of the Russian military’s disregard for conventional “rules of war.” 

            For the Chechneans, this is not news, as nearly a quarter of their population was placed into concentration camps during the Chechnean-Russian Conflict (2009-2017). There are numerous accusations of Russia’s use of chemical weapons and the targeting of civilians in that conflict, among other atrocities. But now, with the world watching, Russian forces have continued to implement the archaic conquistadorial tactics utilized by the German military in WWII. 

In the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, a new “Filtration” operation has commenced. Russian forces are gathering and sorting the Ukrainian people of Mariupol, and separating the pro-Russians from the pro-Ukrainians. This filtration relies heavily on the information by social media and internet history. In the previously occupied areas surrounding Kiev, survivors claim Russian soldiers were supplied with lists of family members of Ukrainian soldiers and government officials, which they would then arrest and interrogate (and often execute). For those in Mariupol who are deemed pro-Ukraine, a similar fate awaits. There are also plans in place to recruit those who are deemed pro-Russian to the now short-staffed Russian military. This attempt to “filter” occupied people has historically been labeled as genocide, and has already raised concern in the international community.

In the contested eastern region of Ukraine, major battles are brewing. As Russia and Ukraine regroup and rearm, both nations warn of massive escalation in the near future. Ukraine’s ‘iron general’ Valeriy Zaluzhnyy has recently begun a counter-attack campaign within Ukraine and the Russian border. Similarly, both Zelinsky and Putin warn that time has run out for diplomacy. As NATO scrambles to find their role in this conflict, Zelinsky continues to ask for more weaponry. The United State’s senate responded by restarting the WWII era program “Lend-Lease” that allows President Biden to increase military aid without any of the traditional procedural hurdles. This provision has proved vital in the fight to adequately arm Ukrainian soldiers with the potent American-made Javelin anti-tank missiles. 

The use of the Javelin anti-tank missile, Turkish Bayraktar UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle), and Ukrainian Neptune surface-to-air missile has proved to be a massive turning point in this conflict. As solitary Ukrainian operators use $200,000 Javelin missiles to destroy $2,000,000 Russian tanks, the feasibility of cumbersome armored vehicles has come under scrutiny. The same can be said for fighter jets, among other close range aerial vehicles targeted by this technology. The recent sinking of the Russian flagship Moskva in the black sea revealed the scale of this technological and tactical advancement, as modern Ukrainian Neptune missiles proved effective against the prized soviet missile cruiser (worth tens of millions more than the weaponry used to destroy it). The success of this guerilla warfare tactic in the modern urban environment of Ukraine may change how all wars are carried out indefinitely. 

Photo by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Press Service. Ukrainian soldiers use a launcher with US Javelin missiles during military exercises in the Donetsk region, Ukraine. January, 12, 2022.

As the Ukrainian front fortifies, Russia continues to expand the warzone as they mobilize troops to the Finnish border in response to Finland’s efforts to join NATO. The effects of Putin’s aggression extend far beyond Europe, however, as the international community further destabilizes. In Asia, Indian intelligence accuses China of planning a new invasion into the contested areas from Ladakh to Arunachal. In response, India has begun bolstering its military in the area, preparing to defend the region. In Japan, negotiations with Russia about the disputed Kuril Islands (which were seized following WWII) ended abruptly as Japan made claim to the area. Russia responded by staging military drills on the disputed islands, as a show of force. Japan, which only began rebuilding its military in 2018, has stood by its claim that Russia occupies the Kuril Islands illegally and begun preparing their navy for operation.

 
Illustration by Al Jazeera. 

The world watches now, as the various “cold wars” around the world turn hot. On the verge of a war of massive proportions, leaders stride carelessly as they attempt to profit from the chaos, while the people of the world suffer the consequences.

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