On Friday, March 10, 2023 China’s rubber-stamp parliament awarded Chinese President Xi Jinping his third five-year term in office. The leader of the Chinese Communist Party unanimously won the vote 2952 to 0, cementing his grip on an office to which he ascended in March of 2013. This third term ends the decades-long Chinese tradition of two-term presidencies and effectively indicates that Xi plans to serve as President for life. Foreseen by Xi’s removal of term limits from the Chinese Constitution in 2018, these additional years are no surprise. Although unprecedented, this move is just another step in his long plan for the centralization of power in the Chinese Government. Unsurprisingly, only Xi’s name was on the ballot.
Centralization of power isn’t a foreign idea to Chinese politics. Rather, it is a familiar phenomenon in a nation that has been a Communist autocracy for 74 years. Following the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, Mao Zedong was the leader of China until he died in 1976. In those 27 years, he was elevated to a God-like status. The steps of centralization currently being taken by Xi are starkly similar to those taken by Mao nearly 75 years ago. Could Xi’s continued term be indicative of a repeated chapter of Chinese history?
In addition to his presidency, the National People’s Congress voted Xi as the head of the Central Military Commision, an appointment which makes him leader of the People’s Liberation Army. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many assumed a possible invasion of Taiwan (a prosperous island state of twenty million which China claims as its own) could come sooner rather than later. Yet as China watched Russia’s unexpectedly feeble military from the sidelines, their plan of attack became slightly more reserved. This buffer period has started an arms race between Xi and the Pentagon. Xi is waiting for his army to have the capability to easily take the island, while the United States is rapidly modernizing its technology in hopes to prevent an invasion. Last year, Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of US naval operations, said to not rule out a “a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window” for a Chinese invasion. While in March 2023, US Secretary of State Anthoney Blinken said that Xi hopes to be ready to invade by 2027. Xi has vowed to ‘reclaim’ Taiwan before 2049, a year that he says will mark a century of “national rejuvenation.”
China’s population, economy, and military might have grown exponentially, in the last half-century. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s plan to be a “bystander” is actually quite beneficial. China and Russia have seen deteriorating relationships with the West in the last decade. In turn, the countries have grown into close trading partners; from January to May 2023, their trade was valued at 93.8 billion, a 40.7% increase from the same time last year. This was China’s way of financing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They haven’t directly funneled money to the Kremlin, but have instead increased trade. This way, they can dodge the blame of supporting the invasion while still maintaining a close friendship with Russia. Not only have their economies grown closer, but Xi and Putin have become close allies themselves. Although Xi hasn’t publicly sided against Ukraine, he has continued to emphasize the “no limits” friendship between Russia and China. This relationship with the Kremlin is incredibly beneficial for China. If Russia comes out a winner of the war, then China will be affirmed in its belief that Taiwan can be successfully invaded. If Russia loses the war, then China will have near complete economic control over the Kremlin. And if the conflict continues, then the West will be distracted in Ukraine, allowing Xi to “bide his time and hide his strengths,” as Deng Xiaoping, China’s second leader, told military leaders in the 1980s.
Xi Jinping’s China shares stark similarities to the dictatorships of the past, but has also managed to patch some of the holes. Unlike in Mao’s China, Xi has successfully expanded the Chinese economy while also maintaining strong trade relations with other global superpowers. Yet similarly to Mao’s China, Xi’s rapid consolidation of power makes China a brutal dictatorship. Additionally, with his ever-increasing hostility towards Western intervention in the South China Sea, as well as with Taiwan, he could be costing himself valuable relationships with European and American allies. All these dangerous acts have come just in Xi’s first two terms, but now we are in uncharted waters. No one knows how far he will be willing to go now that he will likely serve for life.
