The Strait of Hormuz, a mere 20-mile-wide waterway in the Persian Gulf, has been at the forefront of Iran’s geopolitical leverage in the Middle East for decades. This narrow area of water allows the passage of 20% of the world’s natural gas and oil. There has been a long history of using the Strait of Hormuz as a tool to control conflicts in the area.
On February 28 2026, United States President Donald J. Trump unleashed a massive attack on Iran in Operation Epic Fury. While the goal of the attack was at first muddled in Trump’s telling, which included both a desire for regime change and wiping out nuclear capability, the unprecedented decision to attack Iran appeared poorly thought out. After the initial wave of attacks, killing Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Khamenei and decapitating major leaders of the military regime, Trump called on the Iranian people to “rise up” and take over their country. Unfortunately, with no unified opposition or any military capability, the Iranian regime was able to regroup and crack down immediately on protesting Iranians.
With the Iranian regime seemingly on its heels with attacks from the US and Israel, the country’s ruling class pivoted to a familiar pain point for the American people and its government: oil. “The strait [of Hormuz] is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze,” a senior advisor to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on March 2, 2026.
Ironically, this tactic was not an original strategic maneuver; in fact, Iran was not the first country to employ it. In 1951, the democratically elected prime minister of Iran, Mohammad Mossadegh, succeeded in the nationalization of Iranian oil. This development sent the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, directly tied to the United Kingdom, out of Iran, seemingly for good. The British government vehemently opposed this action and would not exit without a fight. The British sent the Royal Navy to the Port of Abadan, the location of Iran’s largest oil refinery at the time, and blocked the passage of oil ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This directly affected Iran’s ability to profit from the sale of its newly acquired oil. The British, with the help of the American CIA, orchestrated the 1953 coup in Iran, which deposed Mossadegh and installed Mohammad Reza Shah in his place.
The Iranians never forgot the value of the Strait of Hormuz, and following the Iranian revolution of 1979, the mullahs claimed authority over the waterway. Over the last few decades, the Iranian government has been involved in skirmishes in the Straits of Hormuz, involving other countries such as Iraq. The threat to close the straits was also briefly made in 2025 after the joint US/Israel bombing attacks on nuclear sites in Iran, but was never realized due to a quickly agreed-upon ceasefire between the nations.
After Iran was able to successfully stop all oil tankers from passing through the Strait on March 2, 2026, the worldwide blowback from the ill-advised war was felt on American shores. The results of the closure included skyrocketing gas prices in the US and around the world. While the war was already unpopular amongst Americans, the economic effect triggered Trump to escalate his military threats to the Iranian government. In a now-infamous Truth Social post on April 5 2026, Trump threatened the Iranian government with a bombing raid that would make them feel like they were “living in Hell.”
Source: Truth Social
After receiving a dismissive response from the Iranian regime that amounted to mockery, Trump doubled down with another threat on Truth Social to essentially “wipe out” the entire Iranian civilization. Trump seemed desperate for an agreement on a ceasefire to release the pressure of high gas prices that have been unpopular not only with democrats, but also the faithful Republicans in the MAGA movement. The 10-point plan for the ceasefire has included the fate of the Strait of Hormuz. Now that the Iranian regime has clearly established the strategic role of controlling the straits, they have been very clear in wanting to maintain that control. The truce includes Iran’s plan to maintain complete control of the straits moving forward, although this has not been agreed upon by the US ahead of talks.
After the announcement and the ceasefire, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi claimed that the Iranian government would impose a toll on tankers and ships passing through the straits “in coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” These tolls have set off a firestorm of disagreement from the Gulf States and other countries affected by the new development. According to Philippe Delebecque, a professor and maritime law expert at Paris’ Sorbonne University, “Freedom of navigation has always been recognized, including specifically in straits.” Aside from the legality of Iran’s control of the straits, the long-term impact of that control on the waterway is concerning to many nations, to say the least.
Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz will have ramifications for the region’s future. First, revenue generated from tolls of tankers and ships passing through the waterway can provide revenue for a nation eager to rebuild its infrastructure and military capacity. A strengthened military and potentially nuclear Iran would be a threat to Israel and the Gulf States, many of which have long-standing tensions with Iran. Second, control of the strait will give Iran power over the oil trade in the region, which will further solidify its position as a regional power. Finally, this control of the Strait will establish a very dangerous precedent when it comes to future dealings with the Iranian regime in terms of conflicts.
While the exact terms of the ceasefire remain to be finalized, there is no doubt that the Strait of Hormuz has established itself as a powerful crossroad in the geopolitical domination of the Middle East. The nation that holds sway over this narrow waterway controls its own fate.
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